The Myth of the Trifecta

DXR, Wikimedia Commons

Conversations from both sides of the aisle in the aftermath of the election often focused on an increasingly uncommon political situation. Republicans had clinched a trifecta—House, Senate, and Presidential control. Before anyone was sworn in, there was a feeling that Republicans would storm into Congress and reverse everything from the last administration. But, this Congress has hardly governed at all. In fact, this is a governing trifecta in name only thus far—two-thirds of it has not been governing much at all. 

There have been a handful of trifectas in recent memory. None since H.W. Bush have lasted longer than two years. This is a far cry from the decade-long trifectas of the past; FDR led one through the peak of the Depression in 1932 until the end of World War II. Republicans had over a decade of control from 1897 to 1911. What makes us so different now? Unsurprisingly, there is a constant split between parties, close margins, and little trust in long-term command over the government in the current political landscape. Nowadays, only about 1-in-6 Americans approve of the government. Without trust, no one can maintain power. The electorate simply shifts blame from the outgoing party to the new one in power. But, if there were any opportunity to radically reshape the government, the window would be this trifecta, yet it is not being used the way the Constitution would imagine.

Biden’s trifecta from January 2021-2023 had to face significant challenges. An uneasy coalition was built in the Senate, with swing-voting Senators Manchin and Sinema imperiling any bill that aimed to pass with a simple majority. Still, legislative milestones like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act were able to pass and advance Biden’s agenda. The 117th Congress, with the help of control at all levels, weathered the pandemic and the Invasion of Ukraine. But not every bill made it, like the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, which aimed to prevent states from disrupting elections with prohibitive laws. It passed the House but never passed the Senate. 

Trifectas are not a universal mandate, as Trump would like Americans to believe. In the past, they have represented a coalition of politicians serving the interests of their respective constituencies and the President attempting to wrangle them into executing his will. In 2017, Senator McCain sided with Democrats to kill the Obamacare repeal, attempted over 100 times, in a striking schism with the party—which was only months into a trifecta. He quickly issued a statement in the aftermath:

 “While the amendment would have repealed some of Obamacare's most burdensome regulations, it offered no replacement to actually reform our health care system and deliver affordable, quality health care to our citizens” 

Joe Manchin famously split with Senate Democrats on the Inflation Reduction Act, only choosing to vote for it after getting oil and gas provisions inserted into it to benefit his state of West Virginia. Traditionally, Senators are ambitious and powerful politicians, and they will rival the president’s delicate influence over Congress to get wins for their constituency and their career. 

Not this Congress. A little over two weeks after the inauguration, Trump has signed 53 executive orders; Congress has enacted just one piece of legislation, The Laken Riley Act, which had enough bipartisan support to pass even if there had been no Republican majority in either chamber. It seems that leaders in both chambers are no longer leaders at all, they have deferred their influence to the President despite Congress’s legislation being significantly more durable and publicly legitimate than an Executive Order.

Instead of Congressional action, Trump’s birthright EO was blocked. Federal Grant freezing EO blocked twice. And Elon Musk took over the Federal payment system with no act of Congress at all nor public opposition from the majority towards it. The trifecta assumes that a trifecta is necessary to speedily and comprehensively govern. When that is not true, the term means nothing of what it did before. 

This is not the trifecta that Obama leveraged to address the Great Recession and pass the Affordable Care Act. That required hundreds of independent but motivated actors to reach agreements where their party alignment facilitated deals but did not guarantee them. While it may have seemed like an easy win, 34 House Democrats opposed the ACA, shedding that many votes from the majority would’ve sunk any trifecta in the last 15 years; it was only the wide majority Democrats accumulated in the 2008 election that kept the bill afloat.

At the time of writing, Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s confirmation vote for Secretary of Health and Human Services approached, giving a long-time vaccine skeptic the chance to run an agency with a $1.7 trillion budget. Senator Cassidy of Louisiana, a medical doctor currently serving in Congress, is a key vote for his confirmation. He is an interesting case study of the lack of independence in the Senate majority. He has repeatedly disavowed Kennedy’s career of seeding mistrust in vaccines. Yet, he seems poised to confirm him, even after saying himself that he doubts Kennedy can change. This is a man who has administered life-saving vaccines throughout his career, but he is also one who is up for reelection in 2026. Threats have been clear from the MAGA camp, seeking to prop up primary challengers against him. Under that pressure (and undue influence from out-of-state PACs), he has relented his true autonomy as a Senator.

No matter what party had the trifecta, every fail—every unexpected holdout was frustrating but a part of the process. Those negotiations pivot bills and actions toward compromise; they often make the legislation more workable and representative. The fact that dissent is only possible in a confirmation hearing reaffirms two things: this is the only being done in the Senate because it is constitutionally required and the Senate still cannot dissent from appointing someone who will skirt their own authority.

Watching this government play out almost feels like it is at war with itself. The President’s levers of authority and power, Congress and the Federal workforce, have both been consistently undermined to the effect of weaker policies that get stalled and eviscerated in court.

This is not the trifecta of the past, nor is it the one Democrats feared, and certainly not the one Republicans elected. This is a decapitated governing body with the head still talking.